Blockchain - on the hype of emerging technologies

Every July Gartner publishes the Hype Curve of Emerging Technologies. I can't wait to see the one for 2018. It puts things in perspective and you can see how the time frames for adoption of innovative technologies have changed over the past year.

Due to exponential growth of Crypto Currency BitCoin in 2017, there has been a deep interest in its underlying technology called Blockchain. Blockchain is basically a distributed ledger of transactions simultaneously recorded by all the parties contributing to the Blochchain. Typically, each transaction is a hash of the previous transaction. Similarly, the next transaction will be a hash of the current transaction. The next to the next transaction will be a hash of the next transaction and so on. All the transactions are stored on a number of computers participating in the Blockchain. Each computer has the same copy of the blockchain. This way an attempt to change any transaction will modify the whole blockchain and since all the computers participating in the blockchain have the original copy of the ledger, any 'tampering' with the transactions is visible to everyone!

It is a simple technology with many possible applications especially in business involving transactions such as banking, betting, funding, voting, rewards programs, equity exchanges etc. Contracts are also executed with transactions so the concept of smart contracts is also being introduced which can utilize agreed SLAs to execute transactions, using Blockchain technology.

An interesting concept of ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) has exploded in the global markets. Anyone can build and offer a digital coin and then start offering services for the same. This, eventually, results  in creating some 'value' for the digital coin. And once these coins are traded on the newly created bit exchanges, they become trading vehicles.

A corporation can offer digital coins as its 'currency' and then start providing services to its customers by accepting these coins. In future, the mergers and partnerships can be formed using blockchain based smart contracts by one corporation accepting digital coins (blockchain based digital currency) of its partner and vice versa - imagine WalMart does an ICO and starts offering 'MartCoins' and then Ebay says they accept MartCoins - See how the game will change in future!

What if countries develop their own national digital currencies and then major commodities are traded in those digital currencies - that will basically kill the reign of fiat currencies ($, Euro, whatever) and turn the whole system upside down. Being based on blockchain it will be distributed and auditable at any time which will reduce corruption and fraud etc etc. I agree, this usecase is a bit too much of a stretch and probably won't happen soon, not in the near future at least...

What *can* happen in the next 5 to 10 years is that the Blockchain technology will disrupt major transactions based systems. Interesting Apps will be developed which will transform the traditional transactions to a much more secure and audit-able technology. An example of such an App is the 50/50 Draw DApp (Distributed App) being developed by a Canadian startup eXeBlock. It will use distribute Blockchain technology to conduct 50/50 draws for charities - very interesting!

Tread with caution though. Hype has been created about blockchain technology and companies are changing their names to include the keyword block in their names to attract investors while having no underlying capabilities. I looked at the Gartner Hype Charts going all the way back to 2012 and interestingly the Blockchain did not appear on them until 2016 (while the technology has been in use for over a decade e.g. BitCoin). Both the 2016 and 2017 Gartner Hype Charts show it within the Peak of Inflated Expectations era with 5 to 10 years to the Plateau of Productivity.

The search trend for the keyword Blockchain has gone up exponentially in 2017 but note the turbulence it has experienced just at the beginning of 2018 - that will make 2018 a very interesting year for this technology

---

The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, applied research, innovation, leadership, investing and religion. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com

Made my Day!

It is a beautiful day in Calgary. It is Friday - blessed Jumma Al-Mubarak! First thought of the day I had was to send a message to friends and family to celebrate the day by being thankful. I sent the following message to a selected few. Now I am sharing it with everyone:

"Jumma is a Mubarak day. Celebrate the day as Eid. Take a moment and forgive everyone including (especially) yourself. Thank Allah for what He has blessed you with. Clear your head and purify your heart. Pledge to LOVE other human beings and ALL of other Almighty's creations otherwise you cannot claim to LOVE Allah"

If constantly craving for something defines addition, in addition to a few other things, I am addicted to coffee. A big cup of Nescafe Classic Instant charges me up. It prepares me to face the interesting challenges that come my way, professionally in the role of AT&T's Sr. Architect and from daily life of a student of leadership, politics, business, investing and religion.

Amongst others, I have been following James Altucher's blogs for a while. Today's blog first caught me by surprise (because he wrote about Islam) but then it started to make sense. Following are a few excepts:

"Success is when we are ok with the unknown we invite in" -- James Altucher

"Islam suggests do “prayer” five times a day. I think it can be done all day long" -- James Altucher

"In Judaism, to give anonymously is considered the highest good. In Islam, it is one of the main pillars of their religion" -- James Altucher

"Arrogance is the opposite of pilgrimage" -- James Altucher

"I don’t watch the people arguing on TV about who killed who under what god’s name. All of that is BS and fiction" -- James Altucher

"when I look at my own definitions of these five pillars: “faith”, “prayer”, “fasting”, “charity”, “pilgrimage”, I find these are guideposts in the direction of “surrender”....And surrender has often been a great source of success and creativity for me" -- James Altucher

You can read the complete blog here

It is heart breaking to see how the born Muslims are tearing each other apart in the name of the religion while totally missing out on the true message of PEACE and LOVE. It is encouraging to see a non Muslim is getting true guidance from fundamental five pillars of Islam. If God's message is supposed to guide, it has done so! It has made my day

---

The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, applied research, innovation, leadership, investing and religion. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com

Colours are beautiful!

Thought of the hour, excerpt from a very positive talk: “…I am not asking you to be tolerant. Do not tolerate each other. Tolerance is for losers! What I am asking you to do is to WORK HARDER than that, get in those uncomfortable discussions, responsibly, and then UNDERSTAND each other….that is what promotes truly progressive diversity…”

Castles, Moats and Investing!

Broad and deep ditches built around castles, buildings and towns in the medieval times were called moats. Left dry or filled with water, their purpose was to provide defense and fortification against enemies. It was relatively difficult to build deeper and broader moats - which, of course, provided better defense against hostile parties.

Having a better moat was a competitive advantage. Castles have transformed into corporations now and competitive advantage between corporations has become a rather complex topic. The concept of moats, however, is still used in comparing corporations and evaluating them with respect to competitive advantages. While the term has not lost its luster, like everything else, it has transformed into a metaphor signifying the relative business strength of corporations.

With respect to financial analysis, the corporate moats are classified as Narrow or Wide. In fact the Morningstar Equity Research firm has trade marked the term as 'Economic Moat' to elaborate competitive advantages of different corporations in their research reports. They define the Economic Moat as:

"Morningstar's proprietary measure of the quantifiable, sustainable competitive advantage a company enjoys. All things held equal, we would expect a wide-moat firm to sustain relatively higher returns on invested capital for longer than a narrow-moat firm and a narrow-moat firm to sustain relatively higher returns on invested capital for longer than a no-moat company."

So, the Moat Value in combination with other evaluation parameters like yield, market cap, risk/volatility, current and fair value price can combine to form a great strategy for investment. 

An equity with wide-moat with fair market value significantly higher than the current price with medium to low volatility risk is a good choice. It becomes even a greater choice if the equity has significant (greater than 500 million dollar) market cap with higher (more than 4%) yields.

When diligently followed, this investment strategy looks promising. Until I try this myself and then write the next blog on the topic, enjoy several beautiful pictures of moats by googling 'moat'.

Cheers!

---

The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, applied research, innovation and optimized business solutions. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com

Here is why Pakistan is more diverse than you thought

Umer Waqar shared a post DAWN.COM

Here is why Pakistan is more diverse than you thought

Ten years in the Cow town!

Horse Saddles - A picture taken by the author during a visit to The Jasper National Park in 2015

My wife and I celebrated 10 years in Calgary, Canada this year. I still remember the thrills that traversed my body while descending from a plane in 2006 to go for a face-to-face interview with the executives of a company. I boarded the plane from Montreal – a city which had, for several reasons, started to feel dark and gloomy and landed on an airport which was sunnier than any Canadian city I had had the experience of traveling so far. Before even meeting the interviewers, I fell for the city. I liked everything I saw, while sitting at the passenger seat of the Associated cab en-route to the Kensington Village, near downtown Calgary.

Sitting on the front seat of a cab when traveling to unknown places is a good way to get the 'public' opinion. There are two professions which seemingly project to know more about the 'ground realities' than anybody else: The Barbers and the Cab Drivers. Be friends with them and you'll never need another guide! But, you'd have to bear the burden of facing their gigantic ego.

"Where are you coming from, Sir?" he asked

“Montreal” I said

"Why?" was the next question

"For a job interview" was my terse response

"Yes, no jobs in Montreal. Everyone lives on welfare there. You'll like Calgary. Good for business"

There! He summed it up concisely.

"I have 2 houses and I own this plate. I do the morning shift while my cousins do the other two shifts on my plate"

He continued while I couldn't stop ogling at the western styled architecture of Kensington area. We had arrived at the address I was given.

The main entrance was classic and clean. The signs somehow guided me to the stairs to the 2^nd floor which was even cleaner and quieter. It was a rather small door with a little window through which I could peek inside. As if it was a crystal ball and my whole future was hiding behind that window, I tried to look as far and as wide as I could. Did not see anything but a few empty desks and some nifty looking telecom hardware laying around. That must be a VoIP switch, I thought.

When no one answered the door after I rang the bell for the second time, I started to get worried. Did I have the correct address? Did I write their number to call them just in case? There was a little sign on the door saying “For Employees Only – Keep the door closed at all the times”. I was not an employee yet so it was clear that I had ended up in front of the wrong door of the company. But, do they follow the rules? I couldn’t help my inquisitiveness and turned the knob. It was open!

At least two people got out of their cubicles and rushed towards the door as if the office was under attack and the security had been compromised. I felt as if I should forget about this job now because I had already broken some sort of code and committed a felony against the established statutes of my prospective employer. As if some sort of intellectual property had been leaked and I was directly responsible for it. Why did I open the door? Did I have any other choice? No, I didn’t – about six hours of travel had made me sluggish.

One of them recessed the idea of confronting me but the other, rather serious looking dude, approached me.

“Who are you looking for?” he asked.

“I am here for an interview” I replied, humbly.

“Are you the guy coming from Montreal?”

“Yes”

“How did you get in here?”

“The door was open”

“Ah – these guys! We got to do something about this door. Follow me”

“I am Umer. Nice meeting you, Sir”.

“I am Kirk (the name has been changed). I googled you. Nice meeting you, Umer. Would you like anything to drink?”

“No, thanks Kirk. You must have seen my resume?”

“Yes, I’m one of your interviewers. Let us go find Lu (the name has been changed) and have a quick chat and then we’ll go out for lunch”

We walked from the middle of the hall towards a corner and entered a conference room. Lu was waiting for us over there. There was a lot of telecom hardware on the center table with Ethernet connected devices everywhere. “Get ready for some hands on tests Umer” – the thought crossed my mind. Lu stood up and shook my hand. He looked like a seasoned telecom professional. He was wearing a yellow jacket with the company’s logo on it. The dim lights in the room, flickering LEDs from the quietly running telecom gear and a couple of very successful and seasoned telecom professionals standing in front of me made me look like a pigmy. But only for a moment! I remembered what an old friend used to say when we were preparing for those soul draining exams of the Electrical Engineering curriculum: “Have we failed in any exam ever? We’ll pass this one too”. He used to say. But the real difference was made by Lu’s confidence filled and assuring voice. “Thank you for taking such a long flight to come see us. We’re very happy to see you” – he said.

The conversations delved into all aspects of a customer facing technical role I was being considered for. We had a good lunch at a western style steakhouse in the vicinity and the conversation continued for a while after we returned to the office. After about two hours of discussing VoIP, SIP and how it was going to change the world Lu said that he was going to show me around the office. We accidently bumped in to the GM of the Calgary office. He was a tall, physically fit, very smart tech savvy executive and I had watched ALL of his webcasts before taking the flight to Calgary. I appreciated his webcasts and to my utter surprise, he invited me to his office for a one-on-one chat regarding the job opportunity (I am still sure it was not part of the plan). Again, for a moment, I was terrified and then I remembered the words of my friend from the University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore. “Have we failed in any exam ever? We’ll pass this one too”. I prayed in my heart for God to help me in passing this step too – and He did. We had a deeply insightful discussion on the SIP protocol, the associated developing IETF proposals and challenges in commercializing this new technology. I had been living through all these experiences in my professional life in Montreal and with the help of the Almighty, it all came up nicely in my discussions with the most important man in the Calgary office.

He tried using an app called #TAXI to call for a cab to take me back to the airport but it didn’t work! Incidentally, only 2 years down the road (in 2008) I helped redesign the infrastructure behind #TAXI and perfected it to a point where a lot of Canadians use it on a daily basis now. But that was during my second job in Calgary. I did get the job offer from the beautiful office in Kensington Village too.

Serene waters of the Glenbow Reservoir - picture by the author in Summer 2016

During my 10 years in Calgary I have been blessed with meeting and learning from some of the great technical and business minds of our industry. Professionally speaking, I have had the honor of working for some of the great Canadian enterprises like Golder Associates, TELUS and Alberta Health Services (AHS). I am proud to have contributed in the Network Architecture of Calgary’s great new hospital: South health Campus (SHC) and inter-connecting Calgary’s five major hospitals via fiber optic technology while working as a consultant for AHS. Recently, I have been designing business solutions for the Royal Dutch Shell while working for AT&T Global Services, based in our very own, beautiful, City of Calgary. Calgary is home now!

We’re in the middle of a major economical trough in Calgary and Alberta at the moment. Things will not stay the same. Even the darkest nights will end and the sun will rise (Victor Hugo). Keep on believing in yourselves, keep on learning and do not be afraid to work hard to follow your dreams. As Paulo Coelho said in his world famous best seller The Alchemist: “When you really want something, the whole universe conspires in helping you achieve that”. With God’s help, nothing is impossible.

Wishing you a healthy, prosperous and blessed new year 2017!

Umer Waqar, P.Eng.

Calgary

19 December 2016

--

The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, applied research, innovation and optimized business solutions. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com