Sunday, January 3, 2021

Embrace a #Better2021

My 2021 word is EMBRACE. The last decade has transformed life and business into new realities with new challenges and opportunities. The year 2020 expedited this transformation with a lot of help from the pandemic. Starting the new year 2021 and a new decade in the 21st century, we must EMBRACE the new realities of everything that has changed and move on! No doubt 2020 was a strange, tough and stressful year but it also enhanced our resilience so that we can Embrace a #Better2021.

My 2020 word was PURPOSE. Some of my friends know that I talked about it a lot in 2020. I spent the whole year seeking it. Why are we on planet earth? Why do we have to work? What's our PURPOSE?....and so many more related questions and discussions happened in 2020.

Despite all the stress in 2020, I am satisfied that it helped me look for those answers. Such a quest is not productive in carefree times. Human nature is too strong to not to enjoy beautiful sunny days but instead ponder upon such mind draining questions. These require a different atmosphere. Most of the 2020 provided that.

So, here is what I found: There is no purpose worthy enough in this world without understanding and genuinely believing in faith in God. No other purpose is 'big enough' to justify our existence. We have to start from there and then everything else aligns and with His help we'll find all the answers. 

Once we see our purpose, we will start to appreciate the most valuable limited asset provided to us. Yes, that's the time. Time is there to fulfill our purpose and it is diminishing by the microseconds. No power on earth can stop that! Then we realize that each new hour, each new day and each new year is the utmost invaluable gift from the Creator so that we can fulfill our purpose. Only after embracing this we can see that we will have a #Better2021.

Embrace a #Better2021

#HappyNewYear2021



Umer Waqar

Calgary AB


Wednesday, January 22, 2020

A good setup to day trade (long) using 9EMA, MD and VWAP

Setup

  • Opens up more than 2% from previous day's close with more than average volume
  • ATR is > 0.75
Do not follow the price/action on the way up!
  • Wait for the HOD
  • Wait for re-trace from HOD, ideally to the MD
  • At this stage, confirm the strenght of the upwards momentum
    • Upwards momentum strength is
      • LOW if VWAP > 9EMA > MD
      • MEDIUM if 9EMA > VWAP > MD
      • HIGH if 9EMA > MD > VWAP
  • Both the MD and 9EMA should be pointing upwards
  • Take a long position on the MD with targets at the VWAP, previous high or the HOD considering the risk is highest at LOW upwards momentum and lowest at the HIGH upwards momentum. SL just below the previous low.
  • Close positions on targets (VWAP, previous high, HOD), take new long positions on each re-trace to the MD
This setup works best with 5 min timeline!

Example: SPCE on 22 Jan 2020








Saturday, January 18, 2020

Step by Step Day Trading gap-up strategies using Technical Analysis

Day trading can be a consistently profitable business if executed with discipline, strategy and without emotional biases (greed, fear)! Below I present a couple of low-risk, high risk-to-reward (>3) gap-up strategies with step-by-step instructions. These are based on my years of studies, experimentation and experience. Whilst I am sharing my knowledge hoping that you can benefit from it, I do NOT take any responsibility of any losses you may experience. You can experiment with simulators and get confidence and experience before trying out in real. These are simple strategies but require deep technical analysis knowledge to execute them properly.

These strategies will work on a 5 min chart when a stock opens with a gap-up above 2% of the previous day's closing price. It is best to use stocks with an average volume of above 300K and an ATR of more then 0.75. Apply on stocks in less than $20 price range.

I am using Volume, VWAP, 9EMA, Camarilla Pivots and McGingley Dynamic as indicators. However, I cannot stress enough the importance of deep understanding of Price/Volume action! Candle stick patterns with the combination of Price/Volume action are the most basic and the best indicators as per my studies and experience.

For now, I have added step-by-step instructions in the images for you to follow. I'll keep updating this blog post to add more details as well as more gap-up strategies. Gap-down (>2%) strategies are the reverse of the gap-up strategies

1. RED MORNING


RED MORNING gap-up strategy

































2. GREEN2RED REVERSAL


GREEN2RED gap-up strategy








Remember that these are for intraday and day-trading. Do not apply them on swing trading and you must close your positions before the end of the day unless you are sure that some swing trading starategy is in play for the next day. I'll write about swing trading strategies at some other point.

Have fun and good luck!









Sunday, July 7, 2019

Intentional Leadership

The greatest leader is not necessarily the one who does the greatest things. He is the one that gets the people to do the greatest things - Ronald Reagan

I recently had an opportunity to attend a talk by Morgan Stanley's Vice Chair and MD Ms. Carla Harris. Her talk was about being intentional in leadership and I took the following notes to not only reflect later but also share with others interested in learning about leadership.

Her talk was only about 60 minutes, but she truly compressed the gist of her years of experience and the message from her several books in this short time. During the first half she talked about how we can make leadership intentional. I captured her 8 points on the topic which I'll try to summarize below. 

Authenticity 

You must be authentic to your intentional leadership. Your authenticity is your distinct competitive advantage. Nobody can beat you the way you can be yourself! Anytime we can be who we really are, we'll outperform everyone else. So, being intentionally authentic is the base of being an intentional leader.

Trust 

You must be intentional about building the trust. How do you build trust? Simply, you keep delivering - over and over and over again. 

Clarity

You must be intentionally clear about goals, expectations and performance from your team. You may not be able to project the performance of the year, quarter, month or day but you must make intentional effort to be clear about that with your team and then you must create hope for your team members and other leaders.

Intentionally Create Leaders

Once you get to the leadership seat, your job is to create other leaders. That’s how you amplify your impact and your contribution. Once you are on the leadership seat it is not really about execution (checking the boxes on a list), it is about empowering other people. For leadership is a journey from execution to empowerment. How can I disrupt myself out of my seat to the next base? All of that can only happen if you're empowering other leaders.

Be intentional about Diversity

People have experiences. Experiences build perspectives and perspectives create Ideas. To arrive to that one idea which will become your competitive advantage, you must start with a lot of people in the room, which means lot of experiences, which means lot of perspectives leading to lot of ideas and then finally landing on that one winning idea. That is the business case around diversity. If you have homogeneous thinking on the table, you'll have a gap in your go to market strategy.

Intentional Innovation

Which means you must teach your teams how to fail! If people are afraid of failure, they will not take the risk to innovate because they think there will be out sized retribution if they make a mistake. How do you do that? You need to celebrate the failures. The only reason we don't take risks is that we're scared. Fear has no place in your success equation! FEAR: False Evidence of things Appearing Real! Failure always brings you a gift and that gift is called experience...and there is no shortcut to experience.

Intentional Inclusion

What does it mean to be an inclusive leader? How does it manifest itself? How does one show up as an inclusive leader? The simplest way to do that is to solicit other people's voices. Be intentional on inclusion from your team members. Everyone values being heard! By inclusion, you've communicated that you're all hearing and all seeing. People value being seen, especially by the boss. You've created connectivity in that environment. You’ve not only inspired but you have now fostered collaboration. Now people are not afraid that someone is challenging my idea. They are now thinking that someone is listening and seeing my idea and trying to make it better. What you're really aiming for is that your team members say that this is 'my team'! Especially the millennials, X'ers and Z'ers value transparency, inclusiveness and feedback.

Be the Voice

As a powerful intentional leader, you must be able to call a thing a thing. You must be willing to call a thing a thing. You must give voice to the thing that is really burdening the people working in the team. When you're willing to call it out, they are willing to own it and, more importantly, push past it.




The next half of her talk was about three key lessons (pearls) from her books: Expect to Win and Strategize to Win (these are on my to-read list)

Perception

Perception is the co-pilot to reality. How people perceive you will directly impact how they deal with you. Yes, the reality of how smart you're has something to do with your success. Yes, how hard you work has something to do with your success, but the very big component of success is the perception that the marketplace has about you! What lens are they looking through when they are looking at you? It is important that if you want to maximize your success, you value the adjectives that are associated with your success. If you don't understand the adjectives, you can work hard, but you won't maximize your success in that seat you're sitting at because you're working in a way that is inconsistent from the way they are thinking about success. If you're expected to manage a large group of people but you're not perceived as inspiring, motivational and organized it doesn’t matter that you can do it. Doesn’t even matter that you did do it! - you won't get the opportunity to do it if you're not perceived as such. Remember that you can train people to think about you in a matter you want them to think about you. How do you do that? You pick 3 adjectives that you'd like people to think of when you're not in the room (all important decisions about your career are made when you're not in the room: compensation, promotion, new assignments all decisions are made when you're not in the room). Pick 3 adjectives which describe you who you think you really are. Remember no one can beat you in what you really are! And pick 3 adjectives that are valued in your organization. Where they intersect, is how you should behave consistently in the way you want other people to perceive you. Simply create a consistent behavior around those three adjectives. What got you to the seat will not allow you to ascend that seat to the next level. Ask your boss what needs to happen to get the title of an out of the box performer? If boss says, well I don't know - you always do a good job! Note - this is a problem!! If your boss can't tell you what success looks like, you'll never maximize success in that seat because success will always be shifting. That will make your performance vulnerable to outside influences on your boss. If you're boss cannot tell you what success looks like, give her several ideas and ask her what she likes and what she doesn’t like - you'll have your adjectives to work on.

Networking

There are two types of currencies in any environment: Performance currency and Relationship currency. While performance currency starts creating diminishing returns after several years, the relationship currency never makes diminishing returns. While you set an expected performance level on the performance currency (and it starts making diminishing returns) the next level is to mint the relationship currency. Your ability to ascend will be the result of someone's judgement! Judgement whether or not you're ready, whether or not your team will follow you and judgement whether you'll be ultimately successful or not! Judgements are directly influenced by relationships. Everyone has the power to mint both the performance and relationship currencies. Result of previous experiences (successes/failures), performance and relationships is the hard earned personal influential currency. That is the hardest currency to mint. Who will spend his hard earned, personal, influential currency on someone that he does not know? While you're shying away from minting that relationship currency (making new relationships), your ability to ascend may not be influenced by 'if someone likes you' but it will be influenced by 'if someone knows you'! While your performance currency may get your name called in the room when you're not in the room, if no one in the room knows you (because you haven't invested in the relationship currency) they simply go to the next name and that has absolutely nothing to do with your ability to do the job.

Expectations

Expectation that you'll do well. This is the most important component in anybody's success. You must use everything in your tool-set to maximize your success. Everyone has 3 things in the tool-set: 1. Academic background 2. Experiential learning and 3. Network, yet the one tool that is grossly underutilized is the network.




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The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services and a Consultant at TELEPACKETS INC. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from UET, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, Applied Research, Innovation, Leadership, Stock Markets, Investing and Religion. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com. He tweets at https://twitter.com/engruw




Saturday, March 31, 2018

ITIL Service Life-cycle

At its core, the ITIL Life-cycle consists of:
  1. Service Strategy
  2. Service Design
  3. Service Transition
  4. Service Operation and
  5. Continual Service Improvement

Service Strategy

Service Strategy provides guidance on how to view service management not only as an organizational capability but as a strategic asset. Topics covered in Service Strategy include 

  • Financial Management
  • Demand Management
  • Organizational Development
  • Strategic Risks
  • Development of service markets
  • Characteristics of internal and external provider types
  • Service assets
  • Service portfolio and 
  • Implementation of strategy through the Service Life-cycle

Service Strategy is about ensuring that organizations are in position to handle the costs and risks associated with their service portfolios, and are set up not just for operational effectiveness but for distinctive performance. It is about thinking WHY something needs to be done before HOW to do it!

Service Design

Service Design is the stage in the life-cycle that turns Service Strategy into the blueprint for delivering the business objectives. Services provide value to the business by delivering their (strategic) business objectives. Service Design covers design principles and methods for converting strategic objectives into portfolios of services and service assets. Among the key topics in Service Design are
  • Service Catalogue
  • Availability
  • Capacity
  • Continuity and 
  • Service Level Management

Service Transition

Service Transition provides guidance for the development and improvement of capabilities for transitioning new and changed services into live service operation, while controlling the risks of failure and disruption. Key topics are:
  • Change Management
  • Configuration Management
  • Asset Management
  • Release Management
  • Deployment Management
  • Risk Management
  • Program Management

It provides guidance on managing the complexity related to changes to services and service management processes; preventing undesired consequences while allowing for innovation. Guidance is also provided on transferring the control of services between customers and service providers.

Service Operation

Service Operation is about management of the day-to-day operation of services. It includes guidance on achieving effectiveness and efficiency in the delivery and support of services to ensure value for the customer and the service provider. 

Organizations are provided with detailed process guidelines, methods and tools for use in two major control perspectives: reactive and proactive. Managers and practitioners are provided with knowledge allowing them to make better decisions in areas such as managing the availability of services, controlling demand, optimizing capacity utilization, scheduling of operations and fixing problems. Guidance is provided on supporting operations through new models and architectures such as shared services, utility computing, web services and mobile commerce.

key topics are
  • Event Management
  • Incident Management
  • Problem Management
  • Request Management
  • Application Management and 
  • Technical Management

Continual Service Improvement

Continual Service Improvement provides guidance in creating and maintaining value for customers through better design, transition and operation of services. It combines principles, practices and methods from quality management, change management and capability improvement. Organizations learn to realize incremental and large-scale improvements in service quality, operational efficiency and business continuity.

Life-cycle Quality Control

ITIL Service Life-cycle approach embraces and enhances the interpretation of the Deming Quality Cycle of Plan-Do-Check-Act


The Deming Quality Cycle is applied to the ITIL Life-cycle stages which helps aligning the ITIL practices to external practices such as COBIT. 

Continual Service Improvement improves the ITIL Maturity Level of the enterprise over time, which improves value for the customers and business.

Get ITIL certified by completing your accredited training online and on-demand at https://www.telepackets.com/itil/


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The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services and an IT Consultant/Trainer at TELEPACKETS INC. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from UET, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, Applied Research, Innovation, Leadership, Investing and Religion. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com. He tweets at https://twitter.com/engruw








Wednesday, March 28, 2018

People, Processes, Products and Partners - The 4 P's of IT Service Design



IT Service Design and IT Service Management (ITSM) are about preparing and planning the effective use of 4 P's!

People (resources/capabilities)


People are both a resource and a capability, therefore Service Designers must consider:
  • How many people will be required to support the new service (people as resources)?
  • What skill set they will require to do so effectively (the capabilities people have)? 
  • Is training required in any specific processes to support the service? 
It is equally important to communicate the strategy and road map to the 'people' so that they be successful. That involved effective leadership. I'll write about that in another blog.

Processes


Processes may need to be designed to support the service. As part of service design, processes should be documented, together with the interfaces between them and other processes. Existing processes should be assessed to identify if any changes are required, and all processes should be examined to ensure that the activities described are measurable.

Processes, their interfaces, inputs/outputs as well as message within and cross functional teams should be well understood by people. This is critically important otherwise it will affect the quality of the resulting product (or service). To ensure consistent understanding of the processes, a standard modeling notation is required.  The Object Management Group (OMG) has released a standard Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). Latest standard is BPMN 2.0 (http://www.bpmn.org/). You can get accredited training in BPMN 2.0 at https://www.telepackets.com/bpmn/

Products (or Services - Value!)


The term “products” includes not only the services that result from the service design stage itself, but also the technology and tools that are chosen to assist in the design, or to support the service later. For example, the service design may be for an on-line shopping service, the other products may include a credit-card processing application, an automatic stock re-ordering service when stock levels reach a threshold, monitoring tools to alert the service provider if user response time exceeds a set time and so on.

Partners


The “partners” referred to are those specialist suppliers, usually external third party suppliers, manufacturers and vendors who provide part of the overall service. Ensuring the correct supplier is chosen is essential, as failure by a supplier will lead to a failed service level to the customer. External suppliers are managed through the supplier management process, which ensures that the necessary contracts are put in place, and monitors the delivery by the supplier against the contract terms.

Why ITIL?


Customers do no buy products or services any more - they buy Value! An Enterprise must create Value by deploying the right resources (people) using well understood processes to create products and services. In doing so an enterprise may have to rely on and coordinate with its suppliers (or Partners). ITIL provides a standardized framework to align people, process, products and partners to create value for the enterprise. ITIL certified architects are scarce and much in demand as the industry is transforming exponentially. Such a pace of transformation can only be sustained by referencing and adopting a standardized IT Service Management Framework such as ITIL.  

Get ITIL certified by completing your accredited training online and on-demand at https://www.telepackets.com/itil/

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The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services and an IT Consultant/Trainer at TELEPACKETS INC. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from UET, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, Applied Research, Innovation, Leadership, Investing and Religion. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com. He tweets at https://twitter.com/engruw


Sunday, January 21, 2018

Blockchain - on the hype of emerging technologies



Every July Gartner publishes the Hype Curve of Emerging Technologies. I can't wait to see the one for 2018. It puts things in perspective and you can see how the time frames for adoption of innovative technologies have changed over the past year.

Due to exponential growth of Crypto Currency BitCoin in 2017, there has been a deep interest in its underlying technology called Blockchain. Blockchain is basically a distributed ledger of transactions simultaneously recorded by all the parties contributing to the Blochchain. Typically, each transaction is a hash of the previous transaction. Similarly, the next transaction will be a hash of the current transaction. The next to the next transaction will be a hash of the next transaction and so on. All the transactions are stored on a number of computers participating in the Blockchain. Each computer has the same copy of the blockchain. This way an attempt to change any transaction will modify the whole blockchain and since all the computers participating in the blockchain have the original copy of the ledger, any 'tampering' with the transactions is visible to everyone!

It is a simple technology with many possible applications especially in business involving transactions such as banking, betting, funding, voting, rewards programs, equity exchanges etc. Contracts are also executed with transactions so the concept of smart contracts is also being introduced which can utilize agreed SLAs to execute transactions, using Blockchain technology.

An interesting concept of ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) has exploded in the global markets. Anyone can build and offer a digital coin and then start offering services for the same. This, eventually, results  in creating some 'value' for the digital coin. And once these coins are traded on the newly created bit exchanges, they become trading vehicles.

A corporation can offer digital coins as its 'currency' and then start providing services to its customers by accepting these coins. In future, the mergers and partnerships can be formed using blockchain based smart contracts by one corporation accepting digital coins (blockchain based digital currency) of its partner and vice versa - imagine WalMart does an ICO and starts offering 'MartCoins' and then Ebay says they accept MartCoins - See how the game will change in future!

What if countries develop their own national digital currencies and then major commodities are traded in those digital currencies - that will basically kill the reign of fiat currencies ($, Euro, whatever) and turn the whole system upside down. Being based on blockchain it will be distributed and auditable at any time which will reduce corruption and fraud etc etc. I agree, this usecase is a bit too much of a stretch and probably won't happen soon, not in the near future at least...

What *can* happen in the next 5 to 10 years is that the Blockchain technology will disrupt major transactions based systems. Interesting Apps will be developed which will transform the traditional transactions to a much more secure and audit-able technology. An example of such an App is the 50/50 Draw DApp (Distributed App) being developed by a Canadian startup eXeBlock. It will use distribute Blockchain technology to conduct 50/50 draws for charities - very interesting!

Tread with caution though. Hype has been created about blockchain technology and companies are changing their names to include the keyword block in their names to attract investors while having no underlying capabilities. I looked at the Gartner Hype Charts going all the way back to 2012 and interestingly the Blockchain did not appear on them until 2016 (while the technology has been in use for over a decade e.g. BitCoin). Both the 2016 and 2017 Gartner Hype Charts show it within the Peak of Inflated Expectations era with 5 to 10 years to the Plateau of Productivity.




The search trend for the keyword Blockchain has gone up exponentially in 2017 but note the turbulence it has experienced just at the beginning of 2018 - that will make 2018 a very interesting year for this technology





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The author is a Senior Business Solutions Architect with AT&T Global Services. He is a Professional Engineer with APEGA, holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore and a Master’s degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Concordia University, Montreal. His interests include reading, writing, photography, painting, promoting human development using Information Technology, applied research, innovation, leadership, investing and religion. He lives in Calgary, Canada and can be reached at uwaqar@gmail.com